The region is also a hotspot for geopolitical rivalry, territorial disputes, and military modernization, as well as a source and destination for trade, investment, and innovation.

Given the complexity and importance of the region, the policies and defence spending trends of Asian countries are of great interest and relevance for the global community. In this article, we will examine the policies and defence spending trends of Asian countries in 2023, based on the latest data and analysis, and forecast their prospects for 2024, based on the current and expected developments and scenarios.

Policies and Defence Spending Trends of Asian Countries in 2023

According to the World Bank, the Asia-Pacific region’s developing economies are forecast to grow 4.7% in 2023, a slight downward revision from a previous projection of 4.8%. The growth forecast for 2024 is maintained at 4.8%. The region’s growth is driven by the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the expansion of domestic demand, the improvement of external trade, and the progress of vaccination. However, the region’s growth is also constrained by the uncertainty and volatility of the pandemic, the uneven and unequal recovery, the rising inflation and debt, and the environmental and social challenges.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the Asia-Pacific region’s military expenditure increased by 2.5% in 2022, reaching $528 billion, which accounted for 28% of the global total. The region’s military expenditure is expected to increase by 3% in 2023, reaching $544 billion, which will account for 29% of the global total. The region’s military expenditure is driven by the strategic competition and tension among the major powers, such as China, the US, India, Japan, and Australia, as well as the security threats and challenges posed by the North Korean nuclear and missile programs, the South China Sea disputes, the Taiwan Strait crisis, the Myanmar coup, and the Afghanistan situation.

Some of the notable policies and defence spending trends of Asian countries in 2023 are:

• China: China is the largest and fastest-growing economy in the region, as well as the second-largest and fastest-growing military spender in the world. China’s GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2023, down from 8.1% in 2022, as the economy faces the challenges of structural reforms, debt management, and external pressures. China’s military expenditure is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2023, up from 6.2% in 2022, as the country pursues its ambitious military modernization and expansion, especially in the domains of naval, aerospace, and cyber capabilities. China’s military expenditure is also influenced by its assertive foreign policy and its rivalry with the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.
• India: India is the third-largest and fastest-growing economy in the region, as well as the third-largest and fastest-growing military spender in the world. India’s GDP is expected to grow by 8.5% in 2023, up from 7.9% in 2022, as the economy recovers from the impact of the pandemic, the lockdowns, and the cyclones. India’s military expenditure is expected to grow by 7.4% in 2023, up from 6.8% in 2022, as the country seeks to enhance its defence capabilities and readiness, especially in the domains of land, air, and space capabilities. India’s military expenditure is also influenced by its tense relations and border conflicts with China and Pakistan, as well as its strategic partnership with the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Japan: Japan is the fourth-largest and slowest-growing economy in the region, as well as the ninth-largest and slowest-growing military spender in the world. Japan’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2023, up from 2.1% in 2022, as the economy benefits from the stimulus measures, the vaccination progress, and the external demand. Japan’s military expenditure is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2023, down from 1.3% in 2022, as the country maintains its moderate and steady defence budget, which is capped at 1% of its GDP. Japan’s military expenditure is also influenced by its security alliance and cooperation with the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as its territorial disputes and concerns with China and North Korea.
• Australia: Australia is the fifth-largest and moderate-growing economy in the region, as well as the 13th-largest and moderate-growing military spender in the world. Australia’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2023, down from 4.5% in 2022, as the economy faces the challenges of the pandemic, the drought, and the trade tensions. Australia’s military expenditure is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2023, up from 3.6% in 2022, as the country implements its ambitious defence plan, which aims to increase its defence spending to 2% of its GDP by 2024. Australia’s military expenditure is also influenced by its strategic interests and involvement in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as its alliance and alignment with the US and its allies in the region.

Forecasting the Policies and Defence Spending Trends of Asian Countries in 2024

The policies and defence spending trends of Asian countries in 2024 will depend on various factors and uncertainties, such as the evolution and impact of the pandemic, the development and outcome of the geopolitical and geo-economic dynamics, the advancement and adoption of the technological and digital innovations, and the emergence and response of the environmental and social issues.

However, based on the current and expected developments and scenarios, some of the possible forecasts for the policies and defence spending trends of Asian countries in 2024 are:

• China: China’s GDP growth is expected to slow down to 5.2% in 2024, as the economy faces the challenges of structural reforms, debt management, and external pressures. China’s military expenditure growth is expected to remain stable at 6.8% in 2024, as the country continues its ambitious military modernization and expansion, especially in the domains of naval, aerospace, and cyber capabilities. China’s military expenditure is also expected to be influenced by its assertive foreign policy and its rivalry with the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, which may escalate or de-escalate depending on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election and the 2024 Taiwan presidential election.
• India: India’s GDP growth is expected to moderate to 7.5% in 2024, as the economy faces the challenges of fiscal consolidation, inflation management, and structural reforms. India’s military expenditure growth is expected to increase to 8% in 2024, as the country seeks to enhance its defence capabilities and readiness, especially in the domains of land, air, and space capabilities. India’s military expenditure is also expected to be influenced by its tense relations and border conflicts with China and Pakistan, as well as its strategic partnership with the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, which may intensify or ease depending on the progress of the dialogue and cooperation mechanisms, such as the Quad and the SCO.
• Japan: Japan’s GDP growth is expected to decline to 1.8% in 2024, as the economy faces the challenges of population aging, public debt, and structural reforms. Japan’s military expenditure growth is expected to increase to 1.5% in 2024, as the country maintains its moderate and steady defence budget, which is capped at 1% of its GDP. Japan’s military expenditure is also expected to be influenced by its security alliance and cooperation with the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as its territorial disputes and concerns with China and North Korea, which may worsen or improve depending on the outcome of the 2024 Japan general election and the 2024 North Korea general election.
• Australia: Australia’s GDP growth is expected to increase to 4% in 2024, as the economy benefits from the recovery from the pandemic, the drought, and the trade tensions. Australia’s military expenditure growth is expected to decrease to 3.5% in 2024, as the country implements its ambitious defence plan, which aims to increase its defence spending to 2% of its GDP by 2024. Australia’s military expenditure is also expected to be influenced by its strategic interests and involvement in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as its alliance and alignment with the US and its allies in the region, which may strengthen or weaken depending on the outcome of the 2024 Australia federal election and the 2024 Indonesia presidential election.

Asia is a diverse and dynamic region, with various political, economic, and security challenges and opportunities. The region is home to some of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, as well as some of the world’s most populous and influential countries. The region is also a hotspot for geopolitical rivalry, territorial disputes, and military modernization, as well as a source and destination for trade, investment, and innovation.

Given the complexity and importance of the region, the policies and defence spending trends of Asian countries are of great interest and relevance for the global community. In this article, we have examined the policies and defence spending trends of Asian countries in 2023, based on the latest data and analysis, and forecasted their prospects for 2024, based on the current and expected developments and scenarios.

Conclusion and Implications

The policies and defence spending trends of Asian countries in 2023 and 2024 reflect the diversity and dynamism of the region, as well as the interplay of various factors and uncertainties, such as the evolution and impact of the pandemic, the development and outcome of the geopolitical and geo-economic dynamics, the advancement and adoption of the technological and digital innovations, and the emergence and response of the environmental and social issues.

The region’s policies and defence spending trends also have implications for the regional and global security and stability, as well as the cooperation and competition among the major powers and actors, such as China, the US, India, Japan, Australia, and ASEAN. The region’s policies and defence spending trends also pose challenges and opportunities for the international community, as well as the regional and global governance and order.

Therefore, the policies and defence spending trends of Asian countries in 2023 and 2024 require a holistic and collaborative approach, that involves the participation and contribution of all the relevant stakeholders, such as governments, industry, academia, and civil society. The policies and defence spending trends of Asian countries in 2023 and 2024 also require a strategic and adaptive approach, that considers the complexity and uncertainty of the region, and responds to the changes and challenges of the region.