Drones can perform various functions, such as surveillance, intelligence, target acquisition, reconnaissance, and strike, without putting human pilots at risk. Drones can also operate in remote, dangerous, or inaccessible areas, and provide real-time data and imagery to support decision-making and operations.
In 2023, drones have achieved several breakthroughs that have changed the nature and scope of aerial warfare. These breakthroughs include:
1. Mass-market military drones
One of the breakthroughs in 2023 is the emergence and proliferation of mass-market military drones, which are low-cost, low-altitude, and widely available UAVs that can be used for various purposes, such as reconnaissance, attack, or defence. These drones are often made from commercial or hobbyist components, and can be easily modified, customized, or weaponized by different actors, such as states, non-state groups, or individuals1.
For example, the Bayraktar TB2, made by Turkey’s Baykar corporation, is a mass-market military drone that has been used in several conflicts, such as Libya, Syria, Ethiopia, and Ukraine. The TB2 is a slow-flying UAV that can carry cameras and laser-guided bombs, and can provide surveillance and strike capabilities for its operators. The TB2 costs about $5 million, which is much cheaper than the US-made Reaper drone, which costs about $30 million1.
Another example is the Shahed 131 and 136, made by Iran’s Shahed Aviation Industries, which are mass-market military drones that have been used by Russia to attack civilians in Kyiv, Ukraine. The Shahed drones are fixed-wing UAVs that can carry explosives and act as flying improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The Shahed drones cost about $30,000, which is much cheaper than the US-made Predator drone, which costs about $4 million2.
2. Drone-on-drone combat
Another breakthrough in 2023 is the rise and evolution of drone-on-drone combat, which is the use of UAVs to counter, disable, or destroy other UAVs. Drone-on-drone combat can involve various methods and technologies, such as ramming, jamming, hacking, shooting, or netting. Drone-on-drone combat can also involve various types and sizes of UAVs, from microdrones to large combat drones3.
For example, in Ukraine, drone-on-drone combat has been a common feature of the war with Russia, as both sides have used various UAVs to spy on, attack, or defend against each other. Some of the drone-on-drone combat has been crude and simple, such as using DJI quadcopters to ram each other in the air. Some of the drone-on-drone combat has been sophisticated and advanced, such as using Fortem Technologies’ DroneHunter to capture and neutralize other drones with nets3.
Another example is in the US, where drone-on-drone combat has been a key focus of research and development, as the US military seeks to counter the growing threat of hostile UAVs. Some of the drone-on-drone combat technologies that the US has been developing include the Air Force’s collaborative combat aircraft, which are high-performance UAVs that can work in tandem with manned aircraft, and the Army’s Mobile High-Energy Laser, which is a truck-mounted laser weapon that can shoot down drones4.
3. Personalized and optimized drones
A third breakthrough in 2023 is the development and deployment of personalized and optimized drones, which are UAVs that can adapt and tailor their functions and performance to the preferences, needs, and goals of their users. Personalized and optimized drones can use data and feedback to customize their features, such as speed, range, payload, or autonomy. Personalized and optimized drones can also use artificial intelligence (AI) to learn from their experiences and improve their capabilities5.
For example, Studio Bot is a personalized and optimized drone that can help Android developers be more productive, by providing answers, solutions, and code snippets based on their questions and problems. Studio Bot can also help developers learn best practices, fix code errors, and optimize their apps. Studio Bot is powered by Google’s Gemini AI, which is a generative AI model that can create and enhance content, such as text, images, audio, and video6.
Another example is Google Workspace, which is a suite of cloud-based productivity and collaboration tools that use personalized and optimized drones to create and enhance content, such as documents, spreadsheets, presentations, and emails. Google Workspace can help users write faster and better, by providing suggestions, corrections, and completions based on the context and the content. Google Workspace can also help users design and format their content, by providing templates, themes, and layouts based on the purpose and the audience7.
4. New forms and genres of drones
A fourth breakthrough in 2023 is the creation and innovation of new forms and genres of drones, which are UAVs that can explore, experiment, and improvise with different possibilities, and produce novel, diverse, and high-quality outputs. New forms and genres of drones can use AI and generative models to generate, evaluate, and refine ideas, products, and services. New forms and genres of drones can also use drones as a medium, a platform, or a source of inspiration for their own creative and innovative endeavors.
For example, Stable Diffusion is a new form and genre of drone that can create realistic and artistic videos based on a text prompt or a video clip. Stable Diffusion can be used to create various types of videos, such as animations, documentaries, commercials, and more. Stable Diffusion can also be used to create novel and imaginative videos, such as a dancing elephant, or a flying car.
Another example is Google AI Studio, which is a platform that enables developers to integrate Gemini models with an easy and safe API, quickly develop prompts, and transform ideas into code to build new forms and genres of drones. Google AI Studio can help developers create new forms and genres of content, such as games, stories, art, and more, using drones such as ChatGPT, DALL-E, Bard, and Midjourney.
Taking Flight into 2024
Drones are transforming the fields of reconnaissance and defence, by offering new capabilities, opportunities, and challenges for various actors. Drones have achieved several breakthroughs in 2023, such as mass-market military drones, drone-on-drone combat, personalized and optimized drones, and new forms and genres of drones. These breakthroughs have changed the nature and scope of aerial warfare, and have implications for the future of security, strategy, and innovation
